Over/under MLB win total projections
With opening day so close we can taste it, the time has come to check out MLB win totals for 2023.
The oddsmakers have set over/under MLB win total predictions for every team, and now it’s time to guess whether each team will win go higher or lower than the preseason MLB win totals for 2023. This is no easy task, but we think we’re up to the challenge.
MLB win totals 2023
Naturally, we’re not expecting to get every one of these right. MLB win total projections are notoriously difficult because a lot can happen over 162 games. However, we’ve looked over offseason moves, position rankings for the upcoming season, and even considered World Series favorites.
After taking a close look at every aspect of every team, here is a look at our over/under MLB win total predictions for the 2023 season.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over 75.5
The D’Backs are one of the more intriguing teams when it comes to MLB win totals in 2023. Arizona won 74 games last year, so the over/under of 75.5 wins doesn’t project much improvement. However, the D’Backs have some young players who could help them make more progress than expected.
Corbin Carroll is already one of the fastest players in the league while Alek Thomas also shows promise. During the offseason, Arizona added Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Evan Longoria while Christian Walker and Ketel Marte are still around to anchor the lineup. On the pitching front, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly lead the rotation, which has some potential. The D’Backs have a legitimate chance to push for a .500 record, so we think they’ll hit the over on 75.5 wins.
Atlanta Braves – Over 95.5
It would take a serious setback from the Braves to not get to at least 96 wins after amassing 101 wins last year. If Atlanta can keep Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies healthy, they’ll have two stars who haven’t been at full strength at the same time in a while.
Of course, youngsters like Michael Harris II and Vaughn Grissom need to keep progressing. But Austin Riley is still around to lead the lineup while Sean Murphy is a nice addition. Plus, there’s no reason not to believe that Atlanta’s pitching staff, including the bullpen, will position the Braves to push for 100 wins once again.
Baltimore Orioles – Over 76.5
The Orioles have one of the more puzzling preseason MLB win totals for 2023. Baltimore shocked everyone last year by winning 83 games and hanging around the playoff race until September.
In theory, this young team should get even better this season, especially since they’ll play fewer games against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays. In fairness, there is a lot being asked of young players while the Baltimore rotation isn’t exactly solidified. But there’s no reason to think the Orioles can’t make it to 80 wins and continue to be somewhat relevant in the Wild Card race.
Boston Red Sox – Under 78.5
After winning 78 games last year, Boston’s projected MLB win totals in 2023 is in the same vicinity. But have the Red Sox done anything to get better this year?
Even if there are modest gains with the addition of Masataka Yoshida and hope that Chris Sale will be healthy, they also lost Xander Bogaerts. That’s going to be a huge hit for Boston.
The good news is that fewer games against AL East teams will help. But even with Sale healthy, Boston’s rotation has a lot of question marks, which could make the Red Sox vulnerable to long losing streaks, leaving them short of last year’s win total.
Chicago Cubs – Over 76.5
It will only take a three-win improvement to get the Cubs over 76.5 wins in 2023. Between Jameson Taillon and Dansby Swanson, Chicago should have no problem improving by at least three games.
The Cubs also took a chance on Cody Bellinger, who is an X-factor in an outfield that could be one of the most underrated in baseball right now with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki also patrolling the grass at Wrigley Field.
While fewer division games could work against the Cubs this season, they are surely in better shape than they were a year ago, making them an excellent pick to hit the over on 76.5 wins.
Chicago White Sox – Under 83.5
The White Sox will be eager to put a disappointing 2022 season behind them with the MLB win total projections expecting a modest improvement following an 81-81 season. A couple of years ago, Chicago looked poised to dominate the AL Central for the foreseeable future.
But heading into 2023, one has to wonder if they’ve missed the boat. The White Sox certainly have the potential to hit 90 wins and return to the playoffs. But they’re also relying on a lot of players who still have something to prove or at least need to prove that they can stay healthy. That creates too many questions about Chicago to feel confident in picking them to hit the over.
Cincinnati Reds – Over 65.5
According to the MLB win total projections, the Reds are expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball this season. There are certainly a lot of unproven players on the roster, which is why Cincinnati is still in rebuilding mode and expectations are low.
However, pitchers like Hunter Greene, who was outstanding at the end of 2022, give the Reds the potential to be a surprise team. They have veterans like Joey Votto and Wil Myers in the middle of the lineup while Jonathan India has been a consistent performer in the past as well. It’s not that far-fetched to think the Reds can win 70-plus games and be better than expected.
Cleveland Guardians – Over 86.5
There certainly isn’t a lot of margin for error when taking the over with the Guardians this year. But Cleveland is still the team to beat in the AL Central. They still have Shane Bieber leading a rotation that always has a chance to be one of the best in the majors while Emmanuel Clase is one of the top relievers in baseball as well.
Keep in mind that the Guardians have two rising stars in Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan, so it’s not just Jose Ramirez anymore. The addition of Josh Bell gives them a little more thump in their lineup, putting the Guardians in a good position to win 90 games and take the division crown once again.
Colorado Rockies – Under 64.5
It must be frustrating for the Rockies to look at the MLB win totals for 2023 and see themselves at 64.5 wins, which is lower than Colorado’s 68 wins last season.
The problem is that outside of Kris Bryant having a bounce-back season, there aren’t a lot of reasons to think the Rockies can improve upon last year’s record outside of playing fewer games within the division. They already suffered a setback during spring training when Brendan Rodgers got hurt. That’s an early indication that this could be a long season in Denver.
Detroit Tigers – Over 69.5
After 66 wins last season, it’s more than reasonable to think the Tigers can get to 70 wins or more in 2023. We can expect to see more of their young talent starting to contribute this season, especially in the rotation, where there is no shortage of options, even if many of those options are unproven.
Meanwhile, Detroit’s young outfield has promise and they still have an all-star caliber shortstop in Javier Baez. The Tigers might also get something out of Miguel Cabrera in his final season. Even with a modest amount of progress in their rebuilding efforts this year, the Tigers can hit the over.
Houston Astros – Over 96.5
The MLB win totals in 2023 project the Astros at 96.5 wins. But outside of the shortened 2020 season, Houston has won over 100 games four times in the last five seasons. Believe it or not, losing Justin Verlander isn’t as bad as it sounds given the impressive depth in Houston’s rotation.
Meanwhile, the Astros could easily have five all-stars in their everyday lineup, so scoring runs doesn’t figure to be much of an issue. Frankly, there aren’t a lot of reasons to think the Astros won’t win at least 100 games once again, so an over/under of 96.5 wins is a little bit of a joke.
Kansas City Royals – Over 68.5
Sooner or later, something has to give with the Royals. While they won just 65 games and finished last in the AL Central in 2022, they could be ready to take a step forward in 2023.
Young sluggers like Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino look like they could break out this season. There are also some good arms in the rotation like Brady Singer, not to mention a veteran like Zack Greinke to lead the way.
Despite only reaching 70 wins once in the last five years, that’s far from impossible with the Royals finally getting some of their top prospects experience in the big leagues.
Los Angeles Angels – Under 82.5
On paper, the Angels should have no problem winning more than 82.5 games behind the likes of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. But year after year, this is the most disappointing franchise in baseball.
Between injuries and other shortcomings, they always seem to find a way to waste Trout’s efforts and finish miles from the playoffs. If everything goes well for them this season, the Halos have a chance to be one of MLB’s biggest surprises. But they haven’t won more than 80 games since 2015, so why would this year be any different?
Los Angeles Dodgers – Under 96.5
After winning 111 games last year, the Dodgers could be about to experience a serious drop-off. It doesn’t seem possible for a team that’s averaged close to 104 wins over the last five full seasons.
But the Los Angeles roster has undergone a lot of changes.
There’s no more Trea Turner, Justin Turner, or Cody Bellinger, and Gavin Lux isn’t playing this year either. Of course, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are still around, not to mention one of the deepest rotations in baseball. But they are not head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the National League anymore, so topping 96 wins isn’t as much of a given as you might think.
Miami Marlins – Under 75.5
Even when the Marlins appear to take steps forward, they always seem to immediately take steps backward. To their credit, the Fish have added some trusty veterans to complement some of their youthful talent.
But the rotation still has some questions behind Sandy Alcantara, as does the Miami bullpen.
Hitting the over on 75.5 wins means a seven-win improvement from last year. That’s asking a lot for a team that’s still only the fourth-best team in its own division. Even with fewer games against the heavyweights in the NL East, it’s hard to envision the Marlins finding the consistency they need to get above 75 wins.
Milwaukee Brewers – Under 86.5
The Brew Crew won 86 games last season, so this is simply a question of whether or not Milwaukee is better after the offseason.
Pitching-wise, it’s hard not to like Milwaukee’s rotation with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff leading the way. However, the Brewers are a team that will be hurt by MLB’s new schedule, as they’ll have fewer opportunities to beat up on the Reds, Pirates, and Cubs. That could lead to a slight drop in their record, keeping them under 86.5 wins.
Minnesota Twins – Under 84.5
The Twins have to be disappointed with how last season ended for them. Injuries played a key role in Minnesota’s struggles last season, and if the Twins can keep their rotation healthy, they figure to be a contender in the AL Central.
However, spending big on Carlos Correa only maintains the status quo, it doesn’t make them better. With fewer opportunities to beat up on the Tigers and Royals, it’s hard to imagine the Twins improving their record by seven wins, keeping them under 84.5 wins.
New York Mets – Over 94.5
While the Mets underwent a lot of changes during the offseason, after all they spent, it’s hard to argue they aren’t as good as they were a year ago when they won 101 games. When looking at MLB win totals for 2023, New York should be able to reach 95 wins barring a total disaster.
The Mets have the same potent lineup as last season and might get a little more from some of their top prospects. They also have a rotation that’s led by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander with Edwin Diaz pitching late in games. Even in a tough division, the Mets should be one of the best teams in the National League and push for 100 wins.
New York Yankees – Over 94.5
The Yankees probably aren’t the safest bet to win 95-plus games. But with fewer games within the division, the schedule they play should get considerably more manageable. There are surely some questions about whether they are a championship-caliber team.
But Aaron Judge has decent help around him in the lineup. Plus, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Nestor Cortes lead the rotation, so the Yankees won’t need to be an offensive juggernaut to string wins together, so 95 wins is a realistic target.
Oakland Athletics – Under 59.5
The MLB win total projections this year don’t get any lower than Oakland’s 59.5 wins. One of the safest bets anyone can make is that the Athletics will be the worst team in the majors this season.
They were beyond dreadful last season and could be even worse, as they continued their fire sale over the winter by trading Sean Murphy. In fairness, the A’s have some promising arms and a few veteran players that most fans actually know. But they don’t have many players who will move the needle, which is why they may not even match the 60 wins they had last year.
Philadelphia Phillies – Under 88.5
The Phillies made a great run in October to reach the World Series last year, although that will set them up for a letdown in 2023.
Despite their postseason success, they only won 87 games last year. More importantly, the Phillies have many of the same flaws they had last year, especially defensively.
Plus, Bryce Harper is likely to miss a big chunk of the season, helping to negate the addition of Trea Turner and an improved bullpen. That could leave the Phillies where they were a year ago, falling short of 88 wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Under 67.5
It’ll take a six-win improvement to get the Pirates over 67.5 wins in 2023. They simply don’t have a rotation that can do that. Pittsburgh has some promising position players like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz who could have breakout seasons.
But outside of Bryan Reynolds, who remains trade bait, there aren’t a lot of sure things on Pittsburgh’s roster. Until we see differently, it’s tough to believe in the Pirates.
San Diego Padres – Over 93.5
On paper, the Padres look like a 100-win team, no questions asked. San Diego’s lineup will include Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis. The rest of the lineup isn’t half-bad either.
There might not be a better lineup in baseball this year.
The Padres aren’t exactly hurting when it comes to pitching either with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell leading the rotation and plenty of depth behind them. San Diego’s roster is built for a marathon, so over 162 games, getting beyond 93.5 wins should be a piece of cake.
San Francisco Giants – Under 81.5
The Giants were an even 81-81 last year, and even that may have been better than most would have expected.
In fairness, San Francisco’s pitching staff is in good shape, so the Giants aren’t going to be terrible this year. But they’re going to need new outfield additions Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger to do a lot of damage. Otherwise, it’s going to be a struggle to score runs. Neither of those players are a sure thing either, which is why San Francisco’s offensive shortcomings could leave them a little short of a .500 record this year.
Seattle Mariners – Over 86.5
Coming off a 90-win season in 2022, the Mariners should be able to match or exceed that number this season. After all, they’re going to have Luis Castillo for a full season and could see young pitchers like Logan Gilbert and George Kirby take another step forward.
The Seattle bullpen is also in good shape heading into the new season. Meanwhile, Julio Rodriguez is only going to get better. The Mariners have also had a rather underrated offseason, adding Kolten Wong, Teoscar Hernandez, and A.J. Pollock. This might be the deepest team the Mariners have had in a long time, so look for big things from Seattle in 2023.
St. Louis Cardinals – Under 88.5
For the record, we expect the Cardinals to win the NL Central once again. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to get above 88 wins this year. With the changes to MLB’s schedule, St. Louis will have fewer wins against the Reds and Pirates, making it harder to beat up the same old teams at the bottom of the division.
Plus, the St. Louis outfield is young and has been prone to inconsistency. Of course, the trio of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras – not to mention a deep rotation – will take them far. But they’re still only the fifth or sixth-best team in the National League, so 90 wins may not be in the cards.
Tampa Bay Rays – Under 89.5
It can be hard to bet against the Rays because they seem to always find a way to surpass expectations. However, 90 wins might be a little out of their range, especially since Tampa finished with just 86 wins last year.
It’s largely the same cast of characters and a well-balanced roster. But even with the benefit of playing fewer games against their division rivals, the Rays have limitations that will hold them back from reaching the 90-win plateau.
Texas Rangers – Under 81.5
Unfortunately for the Rangers, all of the money they’ve spent in recent years still isn’t going to give them a winning record. Texas was 68-94 last year, so are they really going to be 14 games better in 2023?
The rotation will be better with Jacob deGrom at the top, but his health is never a certainty and neither is the rest of the Texas rotation.
Also, the Rangers are still relying on some unproven players in their everyday lineup once you get past high-priced stars like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. In fairness, the Rangers went from 60 wins in 2021 to 68 last year. But even another eight-win improvement doesn’t get them above 81 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays – Over 91.5
With 92 wins last season, the Blue Jays should be able to match or exceed that total this year. Keep in mind they’ll have fewer games against the Yankees, Rays, and the upstart Orioles, which should help.
Plus, Toronto’s roster is in better shape than it was a year ago. Chris Bassitt has joined the rotation and Hyun Jin Ryu could rejoin the staff midseason. There’s also a chance that Jose Berrios can bounce back from an inconsistent 2022 campaign.
Meanwhile, nobody should be worried about the Blue Jays scoring runs, especially after adding some veterans and improving their depth during the offseason, giving the Blue Jays a legitimate chance to win the AL East and potentially push for 100 wins.
Washington Nationals – Over 59.5
The bar is low for the Nats after just 55 wins last year. But they should start to see some progress in 2023.
Plus, they can lose 100 games and still hit the over on 59.5 wins. If they get anything out of Stephen Strasburg this year, it’ll be more than they got last season. Meanwhile, Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore give them two young arms who could take a step forward this year.
Gore and other pieces of the Juan Soto trade should help Washington this year. Also, don’t overlook the addition of veterans like Dominic Smith and Jeimer Candelario, who are both capable of bouncing back from subpar 2022 seasons and making a big difference for the Nationals, who won’t be a good team in 2023 but should be good enough to win 60 games.
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